Two weeks after the Kentucky Derby turned into 20 horses trying to survive organized chaos, we arrive at the Preakness Stakes. The race every year where half the field suddenly becomes “live” because somebody galloped out well at Churchill and racing Twitter turns into bloodstock agents, veterinarians, and pace handicappers all at once.
And this year? This might be the weakest Preakness field I can remember.
Which honestly probably means we’re getting a bomb.
There’s speed everywhere in this race. Some proven, some questionable, and some that are going to find out very quickly that going a mile and three sixteenths at Laurel is not quite the same thing as wiring an allowance race somewhere else. This feels like a race begging to fall apart late, and if that happens, there are a few horses sitting in perfect striking position to pick up the pieces.
Let’s get into it.
Pace Scenario
There is a lot of speed signed on here.
Taj Mahal, Chip Honcho, Napoleon Solo, Great White, Corona de Oro, and even Pretty Boy Miah all figure to be involved early.
Incredibolt from the 12 hole has no real early speed, so Jaime Torres really only has one option: break clean, let the speed clear, and try to tuck over to save ground into the first turn. But even if he works out the right trip, I just don’t particularly like the horse, especially at 5-1.
That’s a lot of horses who are going to have opinions about positioning early.
And when you get this many horses with speed, somebody usually winds up paying for it late.
The biggest question in this race is whether one of the speed horses is good enough to survive the chaos, or if this thing completely melts down turning for home and falls into the lap of somebody sitting the perfect trip.
Because on paper, this race feels like it has the potential to get very interesting late.
So now that we’ve established there’s a decent chance these horses collectively decide to run the first six furlongs like they’re late for a flight, let’s break down the runners one by one.
#1 Taj Mahal (5-1 ML)
Trainer: Brittany Russell
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
The 1 horse in here is Taj Mahal. Undefeated in 3 starts for the Queen of Maryland, Brittany Russell. Taj Mahal was very visually impressive in prep for the Preakness, the Tesio, over this Laurel track. Laurel is one of those tracks where it’s always helpful to have a race or work over the surface.
Taj Mahal has 3 races, and obviously is undefeated. A $525,000 yearling who started his training last Summer as a 2 year old with the Bob Baffert Los Alamitos division. He had him through August when something obviously went amiss leading to a layoff where he’d return to Brittany Russell’s care in December.
She’s done well with Baffert retreads and rejects, most notably winning her first Grade 1 with Doppelgänger in the Carter a few years back.
It’s not like Baffert to give up on a 2 year colt with a lot of talent, which tells me this horse is probably a notch below what’s needed to win a Triple Crown race, but this is by far the worst Preakness field I can remember.
This race features a ton of speed and Taj Mahal figures to be a part of it.
He’s an underneath candidate for me.
#2 Ocelli (6-1 ML)
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Ocelli, still a maiden, ran giant in the Derby. He passed a lot of tiring horses in the stretch and even laid a nice lead block for Renegade closing behind him.
He was 71-1 in the Derby and 28-1 when he ran 3rd in the Wood Memorial.
There’s not really a lot to like about this horse, in this spot.
He’d be pretty tough in a maiden race, however.
At 6-1, total toss.
#3 Crupper (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
This horse doesn’t belong.
He’s way too slow on figures, no matter which you prefer to look at.
I don’t see a price where he’s worth including him at all in your tickets.
Toss.
#4 Robusta (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Robusta is somewhat interesting.
If he didn’t have that race 2 weeks ago in the Derby, I think I would like him a lot more.
He also picks up the services of Rafael Bejarano who won’t help his poor starts in his last 2 races at all.
Calumet loves to have a horse in every big race, so they reach that quota here.
If he wasn’t going to be such a big price, I’d toss, but he should be a huge price.
So for that reason he’s worth using underneath.
#5 Talkin (20-1 ML)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Talkin looked to be a legitimate Derby horse starting his career, as a 2 year old.
He just hasn’t taken a step forward as a 3 year old.
I question the distance for this horse as well.
His pedigree suggests he’ll run all day, but he hasn’t acted like that.
I know trainer Danny Gargan is very high on this horse, but I think a cutback to 1 turn would do this horse a lot of good.
However, in the Preakness, he’s a toss for me.
#6 Chip Honcho (5-1 ML)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Another horse that figures to be a part of the early pace.
He has a race of experience at this awkward 1 3/16 distance but it was the worst race of his life.
Something must’ve gone amiss for Steve Asmussen to skip the Kentucky Derby with this horse and wait for the Preakness.
He stayed on nicely going 1 1/8 in the Risen Star, just getting beaten by a very good 3 year old in Paladin.
He picks up Kentucky Derby winning rider, Jose Ortiz.
Trainer Steve Asmussen knows how to win this race, winning it with Curlin and the filly Rachel Alexandra.
I think Chip Honcho has a big chance in here and he’s definitely a win contender for me.
#7 The Hell We Did (15-1 ML)
Trainer: Todd Fincher
Jockey: Luis Saez
The Hell We Did is a very interesting horse in this spot.
He’s shown the ability to take his show on the road. Making 4 lifetime starts, at 4 different tracks, and never being worse than second.
Of course Remington, Zia Park, and Sunland Park aren’t the tracks you’d like to see on a horse’s résumé when looking for the Preakness winner, but he ran an exceptionally good race in the Lexington at Keeneland.
He has tactical speed, but he can close if he’s not involved early.
This horse is also out of the mare Rose’s Desert, who has thrown stakes winner after stakes winner. Most notably, Senor Buscador. Multiple Grade 1 stakes performer and winner of the Saudi Cup, the richest race in the world.
And on the top side, he’s by Preakness runner up, Authentic.
I think this horse is on the improve, and we will see a career best effort on Saturday.
He’s a definite win contender for me.
#8 Bull by The Horns (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Micah Husbands
This horse is just way too slow.
30-1 isn’t long enough.
Complete toss for me.
#9 Iron Honor (9/2 ML)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
We’ve seen this move a couple of times for trainer Chad Brown.
He’ll skip the Derby with a runner and point for the Preakness and he’s 2 for 2 doing so (Cloud Computing and Early Voting).
I think you can completely draw a line through his race in the Wood Memorial.
He drew a terrible post in the 13 hole, jockey Manny Franco was forced to try to gun it to the front to avoid being five wide going into the first turn, and just wasn’t quite quick enough to clear, so he was hung out wide and getting bumped through the entire first turn in a race where all the horses forwardly placed fell apart late as the top four finishers all came from out of it.
Chad Brown removes the blinkers here, draws a better post, and picks up the services of Flavien Prat.
I think we see Iron Honor take a big step forward on Saturday and he is a definite win contender.
#10 Napoleon Solo (8-1 ML)
Trainer: Chad Summers
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Napoleon Solo set a ridiculously fast pace in the Wood Memorial and actually finished okay all things considered.
The question for Napoleon Solo is the distance.
After back-to-back defeats around two turns, he seems like a horse who would be much better suited for the Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard.
There’s no lack of early speed in this race either.
He’s a play underneath at best for me.
#11 Corona de Oro (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: John Velazquez
He has speed, but not the kind of speed to run with the fastest here early, just enough speed to possibly get him in trouble early on.
If he can break running and follow Napoleon Solo, who figures to be the clear speed, he may find himself in a decent stalking trip.
There’s no real knock on the horse other than the post.
He’s taken small steps forward with racing experience and he’s another one who may be set up for a career best performance.
The question is, is that good enough?
At the price, he’s a definite use.
#12 Incredibolt (5-1 ML)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Jaime Torres
I still don’t see what’s so great about this horse.
He ran fine in the Derby passing a bunch of stopping horses involved in the suicide pace duel.
He was bumped a little in the stretch, but in a 20 horse field, that’s going to happen. It wasn’t enough to cost him any placings.
He’s going to have to drop right over to the rail from this outside box and I just don’t particularly like this horse.
At 5-1, he’s a toss for me.
#13 Great White (15-1 ML)
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Alex Achard
Great White got the scratches necessary to participate in the Kentucky Derby, but the big gray had other plans.
He flipped over behind the gate during the loading process and was scratched.
I didn’t like him that day, and don’t like him again Saturday.
He may play a factor in this race being another horse with big speed, but this is a major toss for me.
He has no shot.
#14 Pretty Boy Miah (15-1 ML)
Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Another horse with not enough speed to make the front, but enough speed to get himself in trouble.
This horse is by far the lightest in résumé, coming in off a win in a starter allowance for auction eligible horses.
He has some number power to back him up but just really hasn’t faced much to date.
Combine that with the post position, and he’s not even all that big of a price.
Makes him a toss for me.
Official Plays ($250 Total Bankroll)
This race feels like one where the pace is either going to completely collapse, or one of the speed horses is somehow going to look back at the quarter pole and realize everybody else already cried uncle.
I’m leaning toward the former.
I think there’s enough speed signed on to make this race very uncomfortable for a few horses turning for home, and if that happens, I want the horses who can sit just off the madness and get first run when the real running starts.
The Hell We Did feels like the right gamble in this spot, at the price. He’s improving, versatile from a pace perspective, has the pedigree to handle the distance, and should offer real value in a field where I don’t trust a lot of the shorter prices.
Chip Honcho feels like the logical horse if he can survive the pace pressure, while Iron Honor is the horse I think takes a major step forward with a better draw, equipment change, and the Chad Brown Preakness blueprint.
Official Plays
$25 to Win on #7 The Hell We Did (15-1)
$10 Exacta:
6,7,9 / 1,4,6,7,9,10,11
$0.50 Trifecta:
6,7,9 / 1,4,6,7,9,10,11 / 1,4,6,7,9,10,11
Total Investment: $250
At the end of the day, this isn’t exactly the strongest Preakness field we’ve ever seen, which honestly makes it more fun.
Somebody is going to take a step forward. Somebody is going to completely outrun expectations. And somebody we all confidently tossed will probably have us staring blankly at our TVs wondering where the hell that came from.
That’s horse racing.
Good luck if you’re playing, bet responsibly, and I’ll see you back here for the Belmont, where we’ll all convince ourselves we finally have this game figured out before immediately being humbled again.
