UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland
Somebody Check Sean Strickland’s Sprawl and Jim Miller’s AARP Eligibility
UFC 328 is the type of card where you tell yourself you’re only watching the main event and suddenly it’s 1:45 in the morning, Jeremy Stephens is still legally allowed to fight, and you’re screaming about takedown defense at your television.
This card has title fights, striker vs wrestler matchups all over the place, old men refusing retirement, heavyweight slop, violent prospects, Bellator imports trying to convince us they belong, and Sean Strickland potentially spending 25 minutes trying to stop a human grizzly bear from grabbing his legs.
In other words: real MMA.
Let’s get into it.
Main Card
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland
Khamzat Chimaev’s wrestling is next level. It may not always be the most entertaining style to watch, but it’s an art, and he’s absolutely masterful at it.
We just watched him wet blanket Dricus Du Plessis for five rounds, and honestly, that performance was even more impressive because cardio used to be the big question surrounding Khamzat. Against DDP, that issue looked completely gone. The move up to middleweight may have fixed a lot of those problems.
Sean Strickland, meanwhile, is one of the most unique strikers in the UFC. He’s been the same guy since day one: pure striking, forward pressure, endless volume, and that weird Philly shell defense where he stands in front of people daring them to punch him in the face.
What’s wild is that throughout his UFC career, Strickland has never faced a submission attempt. If that somehow remains true after this fight, there’s a very good chance he leaves the octagon as the new middleweight champion.
I just can’t imagine this fight going five rounds without Khamzat attempting to wrap his neck up at least once.
We’ll know pretty early how this fight is going to play out. Khamzat is going to come out firing and probably land a takedown early. The big question is whether Sean can get back up.
We never got to see Strickland fully show off his defensive wrestling against Fluffy Hernandez because Fluffy basically refused to wrestle him in their last fight. Sean is a prolific striker and if he keeps this fight standing, he absolutely has a chance to regain the belt.
We also know Sean has some of the best cardio in the entire UFC.
For Strickland, forward pressure is everything here. If he can force Khamzat backwards and keep him retreating, it becomes much harder for Khamzat to shoot clean takedowns.
I actually think this fight goes deep. Sean is tough as nails and Khamzat’s cardio looked fantastic last time out.
Prediction:
Khamzat Chimaev by Decision
Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira
Joshua Van comes in as a fluke champion. There’s no telling how that fight with Alexandre Pantoja really would’ve played out if Pantoja hadn’t snapped his arm in half, but the rules are the rules. Pantoja couldn’t continue, Van got his hand raised, and now he has the belt.
That’s not to take anything away from Joshua Van.
He’s young, he’s an excellent boxer, and we’ve seen his cardio and defensive wrestling improve rapidly over the last couple years.
One thing worth keeping in mind here: this fight was actually supposed to happen last month at UFC 327 in Miami, but Van had to pull out with an injury. We still don’t really know what the injury was, which is never ideal heading into a title fight against somebody as dangerous as Tatsuro Taira. Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it matters a lot once the grappling exchanges start. Either way, it’s definitely something worth noting going into this matchup.
But Tatsuro Taira still has a massive edge in the grappling department.
We saw Taira dismantle Brandon Moreno and hand him the first knockout loss of his career. His striking may honestly be one of the most improved striking games in the entire flyweight division.
His BJJ is elite, his back takes are nasty, and when he gets you down, he’s actively hunting the finish. He’s not just taking people down to crotch sniff and lay on top for 12 minutes.
This is a phenomenal fight and honestly the flyweight division has become one of the best divisions in the UFC.
I think this fight goes the distance too, but I trust Taira’s grappling edge. I think he gets the takedowns he wants and I think this is a level of grappling Joshua Van simply hasn’t dealt with yet in the UFC.
And let’s not forget: Van only really started seriously training wrestling a few years ago.
Prediction:
Tatsuro Taira by Decision
Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
I still haven’t hopped on the Waldo train.
There’s a sloppiness to his punching mechanics and a lot of holes in his game. He’s on a nice run, but let’s look at it honestly.
He beat Ante Delija in a fight that somehow got stopped for a Delija win and then restarted after an eye poke. MMA rules remain the dumbest thing in sports.
He beat Shamil Gaziev, who looked absolutely terrible this past weekend against Brando Pericic.
And he beat Derrick Lewis, who looked more interested in figuring out what he was ordering for dinner after the fight than actually fighting. It looked like the old Eli Manning self sack. Just pathetic.
Volkov is coming off a split decision win against Jailton Almeida, which aged horribly after Almeida’s next fight, but Volkov did show some new wrinkles in his game. He showed improved get ups, solid range management, and excellent kicking.
Honestly, Volkov should probably be on a six fight win streak. I thought he clearly beat Ciryl Gane, but two judges disagreed with me because MMA judging is a social experiment.
The path to victory here is simple. Volkov needs to hold the center of the octagon and use his range.
I think Waldo is going to struggle badly with that. I also don’t think he’s experienced enough dealing with real adversity against elite competition.
Volkov is also the most durable opponent Waldo has faced in a while.
I’ll fade Waldo once again.
What I actually like most here, though, is the fight going the distance.
Prediction:
Alexander Volkov by Decision
Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley
Both guys come in off losses, and once again we get the classic striker vs wrestler matchup.
Like Michael Morales, who absolutely wrecked Sean Brady, Buckley is a long, explosive, athletic striker. Obviously not on Morales’ level, but stylistically it’s still a nightmare matchup for Brady.
Sean Brady may struggle badly closing distance and getting to Buckley’s hips.
Buckley is dangerous everywhere on the feet, and let’s be honest: getting knocked out by Belal Muhammad is difficult to accomplish. Brady somehow found a way.
He also leaves himself wide open for the overhand right constantly, and I think that’s the shot Buckley lands here.
I think Buckley pulls the upset.
Prediction:
Joaquin Buckley by KO
King Green vs Jeremy Stephens
AARP working overtime with this one.
These two have over 100 professional fights combined and somehow we’re still pretending this is a normal booking in the year 2026.
Bobby Green is the more complete fighter. He looked phenomenal in his last fight against the incompetent Daniel Zellhuber.
Jeremy Stephens returns from BKFC, where I guess he discovered that getting punched with bare fists hurts more than getting punched with four ounce gloves.
Stephens is still dangerous though. He’ll gladly stand in the pocket and trade, which is terrifying when your opponent refuses to take his hands out of his pockets to defend punches.
That said, I think Green’s wrestling is the difference here. I think he lands takedowns pretty easily and controls enough of the fight to win rounds.
Prediction:
King Green by Decision
Prelims
Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz
There’s really not much to say here.
The betting line tells the story.
Ateba Gautier is a freak athlete. We saw him struggle a bit in his last fight to put Pulyaev away despite having opportunities early, but honestly that experience probably helps him long term more than another 30 second highlight reel knockout.
That said, Ozzy Diaz is just not very good.
He’s probably getting left unconscious on the canvas sometime in Round 1.
Prediction:
Ateba Gautier Round 1 KO
Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov
Joel Alvarez is the more dynamic fighter and he has the UFC experience edge.
I absolutely love the move to welterweight for Alvarez.
Amosov looked solid in his UFC debut against Neil Magny, the official gatekeeper of the welterweight division, but Alvarez has faced much stronger competition overall.
Amosov just lacks that je ne sais quoi. The striking is eh, he’s not particularly explosive, and he’s nowhere near as dynamic as Alvarez.
Yes, he can grapple. Yes, his submission game is good.
But Joel Alvarez is the most dangerous and dynamic fighter Amosov has ever shared the octagon with.
And honestly, how many Bellator call ups have we really seen come over and immediately prove they belong?
This is dog or pass for me. I genuinely cannot believe Amosov is this big of a favorite.
Prediction:
Joel Alvarez by Decision
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki
Grant Dawson comes in after getting knocked out by Manuel Torres in one of the more frustrating betting performances you’ll ever see.
Turns out the wrestler coming off neck surgery maybe should’ve told people he had neck surgery.
Neck surgery is always a red flag. It’s an even bigger one when your entire game revolves around wrestling and controlling people on the mat.
To make matters worse, Dawson also has a glass chin and Rebecki hits like a truck.
Rebecki has lost three of his last four, but that’s misleading. In his last fight against Ludovit Klein, he hurt Klein so badly in the third round that Klein could barely stand for the decision.
Until Dawson proves he’s fully healthy and recovered from that neck injury, I can’t trust him.
I think Rebecki finds that chin.
Prediction:
Mateusz Rebecki by KO
Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon
Bring your AARP card for this one too.
Forty two year old Jim Miller comes into this fight second all time in UFC history in submission wins, which honestly is insane longevity.
Over the years, Miller’s defense has continued to deteriorate and he’s compensated for it by becoming more reckless offensively, which usually results in him gassing himself out halfway through fights.
He’s still dangerous if he grabs your neck, obviously.
But this matchup honestly feels like a reward fight for Jared Gordon after he refused to pull out of his last fight despite getting hit by a car the day before and injuring his knee.
We did see Rafa Garcia follow that up with a really nice win over Alex Hernandez, which makes Gordon’s toughness look even crazier in hindsight.
I think Jared Gordon is the better fighter at this stage. Better cardio, cleaner technique, and more reliable minute winning.
I think he cruises here.
Prediction:
Jared Gordon by Decision
Early Prelims
Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio
Roman Kopylov once looked like a really promising UFC contender because of his kicking game and power.
Lately though, he’s looked awful.
Low volume, hesitant, and fighting like a guy terrified to lose instead of somebody trying to win.
This is definitely a step down in competition for him, but that only matters if you actually throw punches.
Marco Tulio brings volume, pressure, and educated striking.
The difference here is pace.
Prediction:
Marco Tulio by Decision
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis
Another classic striker vs grappler matchup.
Pat Sabatini absolutely has chin concerns. Even in his win over Chepe Mariscal, he got cut and hurt late.
Still, Sabatini is a minutes winner. He can take you down, control you, and bank rounds with the judges.
William Gomis has awful defensive wrestling. Honestly, the guy can get taken down by a mild breeze.
And once he’s on his back, he struggles badly getting back up.
My biggest issue with Gomis is the lack of power. If you’re going to have such a massive grappling disadvantage, you need one punch knockout power to erase mistakes.
Gomis doesn’t have that.
Prediction:
Pat Sabatini by Decision
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos
This looks like another softball setup for Susurkaev.
The issue with Susurkaev is that he fights with a level of confidence that’s eventually going to get him beat.
Santos is probably the most durable opponent he’s faced so far, but he’s just not very good.
Susurkaev has been part of Khamzat Chimaev’s camp preparing for this card, and I think the UFC is going to protect him for as long as possible before throwing him into real danger.
His time to get faded will come.
It just won’t be this weekend.
I do think this fight reaches the scorecards though.
Prediction:
Baisangur Susurkaev by Decision
Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa
Clayton Carpenter entered the UFC with a lot of hype and started his career with a couple submission wins.
Since then, things have gone sideways.
Most recently he lost to Jafel Filho. Yes, that Jafel Filho. The same guy who gave Cody Durden his first win since Vietnam.
Jose Ochoa is a dangerous striker and I think that’s the biggest difference in this fight.
Carpenter is solid grappling wise, but he gets way too comfortable striking, and I think that eventually gets him clipped here.
He’ll land takedowns and have moments of success, but Ochoa has good get ups, solid jiu jitsu, and should clearly be the better fighter on the feet.
Prediction:
Jose Ochoa by Decision
There’s a little bit of everything on this card.
Elite grappling. Violent striking. Weird heavyweight nonsense. Veterans hanging around way longer than anyone expected. Young contenders trying to break through. And at least three fights where MMA Twitter is going to convince themselves the judges were paid off.
That’s the beauty of this sport.
Half the time we think we know exactly what’s going to happen and then somebody gets spinning elbowed into another dimension 47 seconds in.
Enjoy the chaos.
See you Saturday night!
