UFC Fight Night Write Up
Main Event: Youssef Zalal vs Aljamain Sterling
Clash of guys who have trained together and have familiarity with one another. Zalal is a rare UFC redemption story. He was in the UFC, didn’t have much success, got cut, thrived on the regional scene, and hasn’t looked back since. He’s 5-0 since returning and has been dominant.
Aljo was a former champ at 135 and has recently taken the step up to lightweight. He looked great against Brian Ortega, dominating with wrestling and grappling while overwhelming him with volume and quickness, but Youssef Zalal is not Brian Ortega.
Aljo is aging and his resume is a little misleading. Zalal hasn’t beaten many big names, but he’s 29 and has clearly improved with each fight. He’s the better striker and a better mover than the guys who have given Aljo problems.
Over five rounds, I don’t believe Sterling can keep up the pace and volume needed to win this fight. I think we see a statement win from Zalal here and he puts his name on the map as a legitimate title contender.
Zalal gets the win
Co-Main Event: Norma Dumont vs Joselyne Edwards
Norma comes in off a questionable decision win last time, a fight in which she was grappled and controlled a lot and looked like a fish out of water. Joselyne Edwards got hit and beat up on the feet a bit in Round 1 of her last fight before slamming Cornolle, injuring her shoulder and leading to the submission win.
Both fighters have a path to victory here. For Norma, it’s keeping things at range on the feet. Edwards gets hit and shows damage, and she can use calf kicks to break her down. For Edwards, it’s clinch work and grappling.
I think Norma understands the assignment here and knows what’s potentially at stake if she can pick up the win.
Dumont by Decision
Rafa Garcia vs Alex Hernandez
Alex Hernandez was scheduled to fight on the inaugural Paramount card back in January, a fight that was pulled due to irregular betting activity, which was rumored to be because of a hand injury. So here we are three months later.
Garcia pulled off an upset in the fall against Jared Gordon, one day after Gordon was hit by a car. Garcia came out on fire in that fight but seemingly let Gordon back into it before finishing a one-legged Gordon.
Garcia has a tendency to not do too much and be complacent, and that’s just not a good way to fight Alex Hernandez. You need to overwhelm him with pressure and volume or he gets comfortable and leads the dance.
This is one where you would really like to wait for weigh-ins and the face-offs, but for now I’ll take Hernandez to get the job done.
Davey Grant vs Adrian Luna Martinetti
Martinetti was the winner of the DWCS fight I spoke about last week with Vologdin. It was a war, but after watching Vologdin get bailed out by a nut shot against a meh fighter in Castaneda, I just really question the quality of these guys.
Davey Grant is a badass. He got smoked by a Charles Jourdain flying knee that led to him being caught in that guillotine soon after, but that’s not Martinetti’s game. He’ll bring volume and throw down in the pocket, but he doesn’t offer the grappling threat Davey Grant faced in Jourdain.
We know Martinetti is tough, but I’ll follow the money and take Davey Grant here to win a decision.
Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos
Montel Jackson looked like a total deer in the headlights last time, as a big favorite against Figgy. This is major cause for concern. He was much bigger than Figgy and we’ve seen Figgy have his share of issues, so that loss looks even worse on his resume.
This reminds me a lot of the Peyton Talbott fight against Barcelos from a stylistic standpoint. Like Talbott, Montel is a long and rangy striker. Yes, he has more experience than Talbott did at the time, but Raoni put on a grappling masterclass and I think we see that here again.
He’s shown some concern with his chin and has been hurt, but Montel was so low volume and so timid that if we see that version of Montel again, it won’t be close.
I’ll take Barcelos by decision.
Marcus Buchecha vs Ryan Spann
Another doozy. I mean cmon. What are we doing here UFC? Good matchmaking from a level of suck, but not one anybody needs to see.
Buchecha struggles to get guys out of there. He’ll shoot the takedown, but he’ll have to do so carefully because Spann looks to lock in that front choke. We’ve seen Spann get KO’d a couple of times recently so his chin is questionable, but I don’t think Buchecha is dangerous enough to do anything about it.
I think we see a greasy heavyweight fight where both guys are just unable to get the other one out of there and we make it to the judges’ scorecards.
Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico
Rodolfo has to get him out of there early or things may get interesting for the big dog McConico. These guys are no spring chickens and we know what we can expect from them.
Vieira will try to find a home for that jab and land takedowns, but McConico should prove to be the wiser fighter. I think he survives the output from Vieira early and McConico pulls out a decision win.
Sedriques Dumas vs Jackson McVay
Oh boy. This fight sucks. Dumas? More like Dumbass. There’s nothing good about his game. I don’t know how he has any wins on his record. Well, I guess fighting Cody Brundage helps.
I think they’re trying to serve Jackson McVay a softball here and see if he actually is THAT terrible. I can’t condone laying -200 with Jackson McVay and I also can’t endorse taking Dumbass.
I’ll hold my nose and close my eyes and take McVay to find Dumbass’ neck when he inevitably gasses out.
Mayra Bueno Silva vs Michelle Montague
Montague is a lot bigger and more physical than Silva. Silva is a vanilla fighter and will get taken down with ease.
Montague should run through Silva here and win this in a convincing decision.
Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden
Cody Durden comes in off like 50 straight losses in a row? He put out a real cute tweet this week about how he may not be the best fighter but the best ability is availability, except I’d have to argue with that logic when it comes to getting punched in the head, and how he’ll take any fight.
So in steps Durden to save the fight after Lucas Rocha had to back out. Cody Durden sucks. He finds ways to lose and continues to get slower and worse in each and every fight.
By no means is Filho a world beater, but he will hurt Cody Durden and get him out of there. I hope they keep Cody around forever, but this may be the end.
Filho by Sub
Francis Marshall vs Lucas Brennan
Francis Marshall shows up as an enormous favorite in this one. Brennan makes his UFC debut here as well, a somewhat perplexing signing to the UFC because of his light resume.
Brennan is wiry and wants to grapple, but I just think Francis Marshall has a big edge in this department, and the big number may be justified in this one.
It’s Marshall here. Look for the sub.
Max Griffin vs Victor Valenzuela
Victor makes his UFC debut, being given a second chance after getting KO’d on DWCS.
Max Griffin is a seasoned veteran and he’s very awkward in his movement and striking. Griffin has an impressive list of fighters on his resume and this should be major class relief here.
Griffin is the bigger fighter with much longer reach, and he’s the underdog against a guy making his debut after getting KO’d on Contender Series.
I don’t love this fight, but I give the slight nod to Max Griffin in this one.
Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri
Alencar isn’t very good. Her cardio is a problem. She will come with everything she has in round 1, and all Polastri has to do is weather that storm and she should cruise to victory.
May be a good live betting spot if Alencar comes out hot because she won’t be there for 3 rounds. I think it’s Polastri, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a finish in this one.
Prediction: Polastri
