UFC 327 is one of those cards where it might not jump off the page at first glance, but once you start digging into the matchups, there are some really interesting spots.
You’ve got a mix of proven names, rising prospects, and a few fighters who are going to be forced to answer some real questions about where they stand. There are also a couple fights on this card that feel like they could get ugly fast, and a few where the lines don’t quite match the matchup.
This card did take a bit of a hit with the injury to Josh Van. Losing the title fight between him and Tatsuro Taira definitely hurts the overall feel of the event. That’s the type of fight that gives a card real juice.
That said, it’s not all bad. That fight getting pushed only makes UFC 328 in Newark on May 9th even more loaded than it already was.
The main event here is still very interesting. A fan favorite with an unorthodox style against a clean, technical striker who has quietly been building a serious run.
Let’s get into the full breakdown.
Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg
Jiri is a lovable fighter and a fan favorite anywhere he goes. He has a decorated resume and his only losses in the last decade have come at the hands of the great Alex Pereira.
It’s hard to dispute Jiri unconventional style because of his record and resume, but I’m going to here. He fights with his hands down. He eats a lot of shots and takes a lot of damage.
He was down on all 3 judges scorecards 2-0 to Khalil Roundtree last time out and Roundtree was a combination of gassed and trying to do too much with that lead and led to Jiri getting the finish, but I don’t see him doing that to Ulberg.
I think Ulberg is being a little bit disrespected here. He hasn’t lost in 5 years himself. Ulberg is clean and precise and fast. He doesn’t do anything wrong and he’s fundamentally sound.
Most importantly when breaking down this fight, Ulberg is going to get the jump at first blood here. That’s huge when you have two fighters of this quality.
I really like Ulberg to get the win here and probably the finish.
Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa
Here we have 2 very flawed fighters.
Azmat is undefeated but he has major cardio concerns. He can wrestle both offensively and defensively to go with his striking.
Paulo Costa has a chin on him but that was at 185. This move in weight class can mean of two things in my opinion. This either has made him lazy because he is not having to cut nearly as much weight, which in this case would also raise big cardio concerns for Costa who has had his share of that in recent times OR it could mean he’s gotten some help from special vitamins and has put on a lot of muscle mass and just can’t make 185 anymore.
I think the first scenario is more likely and he’s trying to make it easier on himself, which in turn typically leads to laziness.
I’m also not a fan of low volume pillow fists moving up in weight class.
I don’t love either of these guys and Costa has just seemed to be too trendy of a dog to back here.
I think Murzakanov gets the win here.
Curtis Blaydes vs Josh Hokit
Blaydes comes in off an underwhelming decision win against Rizvan Kuniev. A fight in which Blaydes suffered a significant knee injury and he comes back Saturday night for his fight back. This seems a little bit quick of a turn around off the injury.
Off resume and competition faced, it’s clearly advantage Blaydes. He’s technically the only fighter in the UFC to hand HW champ Tom Aspinall a loss (Aspinall tore his ACL in that fight and later came back to avenge that loss against Blaydes and finished him in 15 seconds).
Josh Hokit is 2-0 in the UFC against 2 plumbers, but there’s something about him that’s intriguing. Maybe it’s his post fight skills on the mic or his pressure and pace he comes at you with.
And Blaydes has shown he doesn’t like to get hit and he doesn’t respond or react well to getting hit.
This is a huge step up in competition for Hokit and I don’t know if I’m 100% sold on him yet, especially being on the smaller side of this HW division but with so many question marks in this division, and so little quality, it’s wide open for the taking at this very moment.
Give me Hokit here to put his wrestling and cardio on display, to make it to the judges score cards, and get his hand raised in this one against Blaydes.
Dominic Reyes vs Johnny Walker
A clash of glass chins.
Dominic Reyes was once at the top of the sport in this weight class, giving Jon Jones all he could handle over 5 rounds. But it’s not 2020 anymore.
Johnny Walker rebounded last time by calf kick destruction, off of 2 flatline KO losses. I think this was more of disgraceful performance from Mingyang then an impressive performance from Walker.
I really wanted to fade Dominic Reyes in this fight but Johnny Walker really stinks. Reyes has also done well in his career when being a bottom feeder and it doesn’t get a lot worse than Johnny Walker.
But, if there ever was a fight for a double KO, this is it.
I’ll hold my nose here and take Reyes to find Walker’s chin first here and get the win.
Cub Swanson vs Nate “The Train” Landwehr
Cub Swanson retirement fight here. You know what that means for me.
Cub has had a great career and if you look deep you’ll see quite the resume of guys he’s stepped in the octagon with. A very very well rounded fighter, but he’s 42 and this is his swan song.
Nate the Train likes a car crash of a fight. He comes in off getting KO’d. So there’s obvious chin concerns, but is he really going to get hurt badly by the 42 year old? I don’t think so.
I think we see a good round 1 from Cub and then we see Nate the Train takeover.
Give me Nate to win this one and send Cub out a loser
Patricio Pitbull vs Aaron Pico
Pitbull rebounded off the loss in his UFC debut with a surprising win over Dan Ige. A nice performance, where he out grappled Ige in a big way to earn the decision win, handily.
Aaron Pico is a big 45er. He made his UFC debut last time after a nice career in the PFL/Bellator, and he made it against Lerone Murphy, undefeated at the time. They didn’t make it out of the first round but Aaron Pico was having his way with Murphy in the wrestling department before Murphy landed that miracle spinning elbow that put Pico’s lights out.
Pico does have chin concerns but I don’t believe Pitbull will be one to exploit those concerns.
I think we see a wrestling clinic here from Pico. Pico in dominant fashion. Will likely lay the points here to cover a dominant decision win or a finish, but it’s Pico all day.
Kevin Holland vs Randy Brown
Low IQ will be on display in this one.
Randy is the better striker here, but I give the grappling edge to Kevin Holland, but neither is bad in either department. These guys both struggle with length and height, which both of these guys do have.
Holland took a bad shot to the nuts in his last fight and probably shouldn’t have continued there, before that he got lit up on the fight early by DRod and actually had a chance to get the finish against him later on in the fight but decided for some negative IQ jumping knees in the clench instead of continuing to use his hands.
Randy Brown comes in off getting KO’d by Bonfim in the fall. He’s just never been able to rise to the occasion through his whole career.
And one thing about Kevin, when everybody starts to write him off, that seems to be the time to buy stock in him and when he shows up at his best.
Give me Kevin Holland by sub and we’ll call it a D’Arce choke.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Esteban Ribovics
Pure wrestler against a volume striker.
Gamrot has some really big wins to his resume. He’s a takedown machine but in recent fights he hasn’t done as much with that control and his cardio has taken a turn for the worse, however Ribovics has never fought a wrestler like Gamrot.
This is only a 3 round fight which is good for the cardio concern.
In Ribovics’ fights against the lesser quality wrestlers his TD defense has just been so-so.
I really think we see Gamrot spam the takedowns and even if Ribovics can find his way back to the feet, I think we just see him bully him against the cage, on the ground, wherever that opportunity presents itself.
Give me Gamrot by decision.
Tatiana Suarez vs Loopy Godinez
Tatiana Suarez will make her 8th UFC start since joining the UFC 8 years ago. She’s the much bigger fighter here, with the much longer reach, buts only landed 1, yes you read that correctly, 1 significant strike (kicks not included) in her last 3 fights.
Poopy Loopy comes in here off back to back wins. She’s a good wrestler offensively and defensively, when she uses it. Sometimes she gets away from that and it’s cost her in the past.
I think fighting a pure wrestler like Suarez, will force Loopy’s hand and make her use her greatest strength- her wrestling. Loopy is also a lot more athletic.
Give me Poopy Loopy to win by decision. May not be a fight to sprinkle on a splitsky either.
MarQuel Mederos vs Chris Padilla
Chris Padilla is 4-0 in the UFC including a very questionable split decision win over Jai Herbert. I really terrible fight where there truly was no winner.
Padilla is low volume and defensive minded but has shown great timing in fights. The Rongzhu fight being a good example. Rongzhu was landing and getting through to Padilla before that well elbow that cracked Rongzhu leading to a doctor stoppage.
Mederos hasn’t fought the best quality yet in the UFC, but he’s shown a lot of the qualities I like to see in a prospect. He’s very athletic in his movement and TD defense, he has a very good gas tank with volume and pace, and he finishes combos with free presenting calf kicks.
His greatest weakness is his hittability. Given Padilla’s style of being more of a defensive minded, counter puncher, I think this neutralizes that weakness.
Mederos’ front kicks will be the difference in this fight. Kicks and volume discrepancy are why I really like Mederos to get the win here.
Kelvin Gastelum vs Vicente Luque
Gastelum comes in off a win and still has that granite chin. Vicente Luque was a legend in the UFC. A great fighter with a glistening resume, but those days are behind him. He just simply a shell of himself.
He won’t be able to hurt Kelvin here and I think we just see Kelvin march forward and hurt Luque. His good movement and his big left hand gets Kelvin the win here.
Charles Radtke vs Fransisco Prado
Fransisco Prado is 1-4 in his time in the UFC. He’s small framed for Welterweight, but too big to make Lightweight. He does hit hard and his lone UFC win did come by way of knockout. He also can get hit and keep moving forward.
Radtke comes in off alternating wins and losses in his last 4 and a 4-2 overall record in the UFC. His losses, however, are nothing to stick your nose up at. Mike Malott and Carlos Prates.
The big issue here for Radtke is his chin. He has improved wrestling and though Prado can strike and swings hard, he’s got short arms and may have trouble keeping Radtke at bay.
And when he starts swinging and missing and getting frustrated, he tends to gas out and gas out quickly and resorts to his own poor wrestling.
I think we see Prado come out with some early fire but Radtke will get a gassed Prado to the mat and find his neck.
Give me Radtke by sub.
