UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer
Full Card Breakdown
Not the deepest UFC card on paper, but there are some very real spots here. A couple fraud checks, multiple fights that won’t see the scorecards, and a main event that might officially be the end for Izzy.
Israel Adesanya vs Joe “Body Bags” Pyfer
Obviously Izzy is a legend in the UFC. 12 title fights.
Unfortunately for Izzy, the days of fighting for a belt are long behind him. He was finished by Imavov in his last fight, Dricus submitted him, and before that Sean Strickland had him hurt bad to a point where if it wasn’t Izzy, with that legacy and reputation in there, it might have been stopped as well.
I’ve been on the fade Izzy train for a while now and I think that loss to Alex Pereira really did a number on his career. He was able to come back and avenge that loss, but at what cost? Was that the end of the road? Did he leave everything he had in the octagon that night? Based on his career since, I’d say yes.
Now I’m not the biggest Joe Pyfer believer in the world. He’s shown issues with his gas tank and slowing down and leaves big question marks surrounding his ability to do enough over 5 rounds, but this is a guy that Uncle Dana, and the UFC want to see succeed. We’ve all seen the Dana “Be Joe Pyfer” rant and we know how much Dana loves this guy and it ultimately comes down to Dana gets what Dana wants in Dana’s world.
This is the perfect stepping stone to see if Joe Pyfer is a legitimate contender or if he’s an undercard headliner. Izzy is still a big name despite his recent record, but I think the end is near for this all time legend and the UFC has a new toy to push in a fast aging division.
Prediction: Joe Pyfer gets the finish
Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso
A 2021 rematch which saw Alexa Grasso come out victorious and lead to a sensational run for her that would lead to her beating the GOAT, Valentina Shevchenko, and capturing the flyweight belt, by finish no less. And I think that tells the true story of this fight.
We had Grasso on the climb and on her way to becoming champ and she faced off with a young Maycee Barber. Looking back, you couldn’t even recognize that that version of Barber would be the one we have today. She’s improved drastically in her wrestling and has shown that she can use it to bank points and minutes and grind out rounds.
Grasso does come in off a couple of losses but they were to Valentina and future champ Natalia Silva, so they’re not exactly bad losses. But it certainly does make you think if she’s accomplished everything she sought out to and if this is the UFC’s way of giving Barber a big name to set her up for a title shot.
She’s always been a fighter that the UFC has looked to build up and promote and for good reason. She’s pretty, she’s well spoken, and most importantly, she can fight.
Another red flag on the Grasso front is that she was supposed to fight Thug Rose on that first Paramount card and she had to back out. Now we’ll probably never know the true reason for the withdrawal, but piecing together things we do know here, I think Barber is the right side here and while Grasso presents the greater threat of finishing things by submission, I think Maycee gets the job done using her wrestling.
Prediction: Barber by razor thin DEC
Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price
Here we have a case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. The retirement fight for Chiesa meets the pure stink of Niko Price. Niko is arguably one of the worst fighters on the UFC roster. I’m still in shock that we get to see him one more time after his last few stinkers, but here we are.
Chiesa comes in a winner of 3 in a row, most notably submitting Tony Ferguson in his retirement fight, and even Chiesa’s most recent losses have aged pretty well, Vicente Luque in 2021, Sean Brady, and Kevin Holland.
I hate to back a fighter in his retirement fight but fresh off the Eryk Anders retirement win and the oddity that has been the Paramount era of the UFC, I’ll take my chances fading the dog shit that is Niko Price.
Prediction: Chiesa by submission
Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas
Erosa is a tough guy to figure out. He’s a good striker, he can grapple, he has a great gas tank, but his chin. His chin is the question. A big question. Erosa has been KO’d 8 times in his career and faces a guy in Douglas who has big time power at this size.
His left hook is deadly and if or when he finds Erosa’s chin with that left hook, I don’t think it’ll be pretty for Erosa. Erosa is tough as nails and survived in his last fight against quick rising star Melky Costa, but I think Douglas’ power may just be too much here.
We’ll take the contender series guy off the vicious flash KO to do it again.
Prediction: Douglas by KO
Mansur Abdul Malik vs Yousri Belgaroui
Both of these guys have spent a lot of time training with Sean Strickland, whether that time has overlapped I do not know. Belgaroui is on the Alex Pereira path to the UFC. Very well decorated kickboxer, with big wins in that discipline, making his second appearance in the UFC. He comes in off a huge upset win last fall against Azamat Bekoev.
Manny is on potential fraud watch here. While he comes in with a visually impressive undefeated record, who has he really beaten? Trocoli? Sucks. Brundage? Sucks more. Wes Schultz? Sucks too. Is Dusko Todorovic really his big win? I guess so.
The problem here is we may be putting too much into Yousri’s last win. His DWCS fight wasn’t great. He did dig deep and found a finish late in that 3rd round but the first two rounds left something to be desired. Had he not pulled off that big upset against Bekoev, what would this line be? I can’t say for sure, but it sure as hell wouldn’t be a pick’em.
Based off value alone, I’ll pick Mansur Abdul Malik to get it done here and I think this fight sees the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Abdul Malik by DEC
Terrance “Twrecks” McKinney vs Kyle Nelson
Well McKinney is very simple to figure out. If you can survive his early storm of attack, you’ll get him out of there quite easily. The 34 year old Nelson is not afraid of a firefight and comes off a fight where he was dominant, albeit over a lesser opponent.
Nelson thought he had a finish in that one against Frevola, more shady ref antics, and was able to overcome that adrenaline dump.
This one’s simple. If Nelson can survive that first 3 to 4 minutes, back up the Brinks truck on Nelson. I just don’t see Nelson surviving this one here. McKinney has the power and speed at 155 that Nelson hasn’t seen yet. McKinney is hard to trust but I think he wins this one.
Official prediction: Under 1.5 rounds
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev
Bahamondes comes in off a decision loss to Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev dominated that fight and made Bahamondes very uncomfortable with pressure, leading to easy takedowns, and just a bad night for Nacho.
Musayev lost his UFC debut to quick rising star Myktybek Orolbai. No shame in that, but he showed his clear discomfort of being in there with a pure grappler and his head hunting approach just may not be a fit for the UFC.
I think that Bahamondes uses that loss to division gatekeeper Fiziev as a learning experience and we see an improved version of the younger fighter here. Another wide line, but Bahamondes looks like the only side in here.
Prediction: Bahamondes by decision
Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson
Chase Hooper comes in off an extremely disappointing loss, as a huge favorite, to Alexander Hernandez. A fight in which he kept his head on a tee for Hernandez to wallop.
Lance Gibson dropped his UFC debut last out to King Green in split decision fashion. While Gibson was given the fight on one judge’s card, to me, it looked like a pretty clear 29 28 for Green. Gibson was very low volume in his UFC debut. He landed a couple of takedowns but did nothing with that control.
I think Chase Hooper just does a lot more in volume and damage. I don’t think he has to worry about the danger coming back at him in this matchup. Although the line is pretty wide, I think Hooper does get back on track here and finds a win.
Prediction: Hooper
Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune
Tybura steps in on short notice for Valter Walker. Tyrell Fortune comes in off a decorated career in PFL and Rizin. The 35 year old comes in for his UFC debut.
Tybura, the heavyweight’s Neil Magny, comes in with a big grappling advantage. From what I’ve seen in Fortune’s losses, he struggles on the mat. I have a very hard time backing a 35 year old who is just now making his UFC debut at 35.
I think we see a low volume heavyweight fight. A lot of cage work, a lot of huffing and puffing, and a lot of control time for Tybura. I think this fight goes the distance and Tybura comes out on top.
Prediction: Tybura by DEC
Casey O’Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes
King Casey was the victim of being rushed onto the big stage by the UFC and was handled too much too soon.
This is Casey’s first fight with her new camp. She was offered a fight at the end of last year but turned it down because she was not ready yet. Makes you wonder about injury concerns.
Fernandes comes in with a couple of impressive wins on her resume. She won a close decision over Carli Judice and a club and sub win over Cong Wang. Fernandes’ only struggles in the UFC have come against pure wrestlers who want to get the fight to the mat and lay there. That’s not Casey’s game.
She may apply more volume here, but I think Fernandes lands the bigger shots and pulls this one out.
Prediction: Gabriella Fernandes by DEC
Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes
Lopes comes in off a KO loss to Dustin Jacoby who got him out of there early in the first. Navajo Stirling comes in undefeated and off a win against Rodolfo Bellato. It was a decisive UD win but it was underwhelming again.
Stirling should break Lopes down on the feet and find a lot of success in doing so. Stirling has a path to being a big contender in a thin LHW division. I think he may finally find his knockout this week.
Prediction: Navajo Stirling gets it done
Ricky Simon vs Adrian Yanez
We have a clear grappler vs striker showdown here. Neither of these guys are very good and both come in off a tough string of fights. Ricky Simon has fought Song Yadong, Mario Bautista, and Vinicius Oliveira, but he did lose all those fights.
It’s hard to back Simon as a decent sized favorite with questions about his chin and where he’s at in his career right now. This fight may be a total stinker but it’s dog or pass I guess.
Prediction: Adrian Yanez wins a slop fest
Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil
I am a big fan of the Fighting Nerds, but not Bruna Brasil. I think she stinks and will struggle with Alexia Thainara.
Thainara comes in taking this fight on short rest and gets a chance to avenge her only pro loss, which was to Brasil back in 2018 when she got her neck caught in a guillotine. Thainara was very green then and has improved leaps and bounds.
Thainara is dangerous and is live to find a finish here.
Prediction: Thainara by Sub
Final Thoughts
This card might not jump off the page from a talent perspective, but there are definitely spots here.
A few fraud checks, some clear violence fights, and a main event that feels like a passing of the torch moment.
Let’s see how it plays out.
